触底反弹、美国&墨西哥市场解析
2024准备充分迎接挑战
尹虹：大家好，我是尹博士，欢迎来到【洞见2024】。今天新年伊始，我与ICC瓷砖总经理汉贝托先生进行访谈。Dr Yin：Hello everyone. I'm Dr.Yin and welcome to Outlook for 2024. Today here at the beginning of the year interview with Mr. Humberto, General Manager of the ICC Interceramic in China.尹虹：时间过得真快，2023年已经过去了。我记得一年前你说过，2022年是最具挑战性的一年。那么现在，你是如何看待2023年的呢？Dr Yin：How time flies, the year 2023 has passed. As I remember, one year before, you had told me The year 2022 was the most challenging. Now, in your opinion, how do you think about of the year 2023?汉贝托：人们对2023年抱有很高的期望。在我个人掌握或读到的所有信息中，中国向世界的重新开放，被认为是这几年最重要的世界经济事件。很遗憾，这并没有发生。最初几个月，一切似乎要发生，但后来现实却往下走。市场有所放缓，世界经济衰退，中国的经济形势，比如房地产业和建筑业泡沫破裂，使事情变得非常具有挑战性。从2022年持续到2023年，这可能让它变得更加困难。Mr. Humberto：There were high expectations about 2023. In all the information that personally I had or read, China reopening to the world was supposed to be the most important economic event the world has seen in many years. Unfortunately, that didn't quite happen. the 1st couple of months, it seemed like it was going to happen, but then reality sinked in. And then the market eased and the world recession, And the economic events in China, like the real estate and construction burst and made things quite challenging. Then 2022 continued to 2023, and made it the quite possibly even a little bit more difficult.Dr Yin：Yeah, but the confidence of the Chinese in 2023 is not enough.汉贝托：还不够。我们在美国看到过这种情况，中国人主要投资房地产市场，我认为消费者信心的恢复需要时间。此外，世界经济衰退正在经历一个低周期，这可能比我们想要的时间更长。我确信中国和世界经济会反弹，但这需要更长一点的时间。Mr. Humberto：No, not enough. We have seen this event happen in the United States.The Chinese, the main thing that they invest on is in Real State. And I think you will take time for the consumer confidence to get back. Plus the world recession is going through a low cycle, so this may take longer than we all want. I am sure the economy in China and in the world will bounce back. But I guess it will take a little bit longer.尹虹：在佛山陶瓷领域，大家都认为你是一位具有国际视野的专业人士。所以我想问一些关于世界陶瓷产业的问题，还有美国和墨西哥。去年（2023年）五月 《陶瓷世界评论》杂志，发表了一篇来自MECS-Acimac的报告。据报道，全球瓷砖市场将从2022年到2026年的五年内增加30多亿平方。但不久之后的同年九月，同样是这家杂志，发表了关于世界瓷砖生产与消费的报告，即2022年，世界瓷砖生产下降了9.7%，瓷砖消费下降了10.1%。这样的情况下，你认为全球瓷砖在2023年会增加吗？Dr Yin：Yeah also in Foshan, in the ceramic the field, Everybody think you are a gentleman with the international view. So I like to ask something about the world ceramic industry and American also Mexico Yeah. Last May a magazine Ceramic World Review published a report from MECS and ACIMAC. It reports the world ceramic tile market will increase more than three billion square meters from the 2022 to 2026, that is five years. But also a little later, last September also this same magazines, published the report about the world production and consumption of the ceramic tile. This in 2022, the world tile production decrease 9.7%, the tile consumption decreased 10.1%. In this way, do you still think about the global ceramic tile will be increased in 2023?汉贝托：实际上，我认为下降的大部分来自中国，显然还有世界经济衰退和西班牙。我很遗憾它一直在下降。一些其他国家表现得不错，比如印度、墨西哥。这可能是一个非常缓慢的开始，一个消极的开始。但我认为它会反弹，我认为我们已经触底了。很有可能，从明年（2024年）开始，情况会逐渐好转，但这并不意味着明年（2024年）我们会看到增长。但我也不认为会像我们在2022年和2023年看到的那样糟糕。Mr. Humberto：So it's actually. A big decrease I think most of the decrease came from China. And obviously the world recession and Spain. I'm sorry is also going down and there are other countries that are doing well like India, Mexico to give you a couple of examples. So it's maybe it was a very slow start, actually a negative start. But I think it will bounce back, I think we touched the bottom. Quite possibly and starting next year. It will get gradually better. That doesn't mean that next year we will see an increase. But I don't think it will be as bad as what we saw in 2022 and 2023.Dr Yin：And 2023, a little increase?汉贝托：不一定，说实在的，它甚至可能比零稍微低一点。但不是负10%，也许是负3%。Mr. Humberto：Well not necessarily, actually It could be even a little bit below zero, but not minus ten percent maybe minus three percent.尹虹：我们也发现了另一个事情，美国是最大的瓷砖进口国，在2023年的前三个季度，美国的瓷砖进口下降了10.1%。我想问一下，主要原因是什么，是美国的瓷砖产量增加了，还是SPC新材料取代了瓷砖，又或是众所周知，利率持续上涨影响了房地产销售，是这三件事吗？Dr Yin：Yeah, another things we also find that, you know the United States is the biggest tile import country. In this year, 2023 During the first 3 quarters the United States Tile Imports has decreased 10.1%. I'd like to ask you what's the main reason is because the tile production in the states increased, or is another problem is some the SPC new material replaced the tile, and also you nearly everybody know the continued interest rate hike has influenced the real estate sales yeah? Are these three things?汉贝托：我相信你说的这三件事是对的。但我不确定，每件事在下降中起了多少作用。慢慢地更多的工厂、品牌、公司和跨国企业试图在这里落户。你知道中国的Wonder ceramics在美国。最近，巴西的波托贝洛开了一家新工厂。这显然导致了进口瓷砖的减少。毫无疑问，利率如此之高，这也导致了房屋销售的减少。在美国流行的不是SPC而是LVT，而且如果我没弄错的话，目前在市场上使用得更多，这些新材料肯定正在超过瓷砖。Mr. Humberto：I believe you are right in the 3 things you said. I'm not quite sure what each one contributed in this decrease. Yes, there's slowly more factories, more brands more companies, international companies trying to settle. In the United States you know China wonder ceramics. And then portobello from Brazil opened a new factory recently. So that obviously contributed to a decrease in imports. No question about it the interest rates are so high that also contributed having less home sales. And also in the United States is not necessarily SPC is LVT Luxury Vinyl Tile. Also if I'm not mistaken, It’s more used at this moment in the market, these new materials are definitely gaining ground over the ceramic.尹虹：是的，我对美国瓷砖市场很感兴趣，它会持续下降，还是几年之后可能会恢复？Dr Yin：Yeah I'm really interested in the United States Ceramic Tile market will be decreased continually or maybe several years later can be recovered?汉贝托：我认为它会恢复的。自从反倾销以来中国退出，市场发生了很大变化。一开始西班牙、墨西哥和土耳其是最大的赢家，但突然印度成为了头号玩家。LVT是材料的其他选择，当然也导致了瓷砖消费的减少。我认为这些变化会继续发生，但最终，瓷砖因为它的生产方式和使用优势，不会持续下降。事实上，在未来的三到五年，即使不增加一些，它也会保持稳定。Mr. Humberto：I think it will recover. The market has changed quite a bit since the exit of China with this anti-dumping. At the beginning Spain and Mexico were the big gainers and Turkey, but suddenly India became the top player. And then the LVT this other option materials, as well have definitely helped the ceramic consumption to decrease. But I think these changes will keep happening, and eventually I don't think ceramic because of the way it is produced and the benefits of using will keep decreasing. You know as a matter of fact it will be stable if not increasing a little in the maybe next three to five years.尹虹：我明白了，我想问一些关于墨西哥瓷砖行业的问题。我知道作为一家大型的瓷砖集团，ICC瓷砖在北美和中国很有名。墨西哥的瓷砖怎么样，2023年国内瓷砖行业怎么样？Dr Yin：I see yeah, also I like ask something about the Mexico ceramic tile industry yeah. I know you in your country always a big tile company also ICC in North America is famous in China, and also how about the Mexican Tile？How about the domestic tile industry in the 2023 year?汉贝托：给大家一个初步的数据，2022年是墨西哥瓷砖消费非常好的一年。我们公司的销售额创了纪录。但到了2023年，整个行业负增长，有些公司可能是负3%-5%，甚至负10%。我们公司的销售额增长了一些，有3到4个百分点。但是墨西哥对美国的出口下降了一些，像3%左右，因为墨西哥自己有一个很大的市场，它主要生产红坯产品，而不是在美国更受欢迎的瓷质砖。Mr. Humberto：In 2022 just to give you a preliminary observation was a very good year for Mexico Tile consumption. As a matter of fact we as a company had record sales. But reality settled in 2023, the whole industry has grown negatively maybe minus 5% minus 3%, even up to minus ten percent some companies. We as a company have increased a little three four percent. But Mexico exports to the United States decreased a little bit, like three percent, because Mexico has a big market and Mexico mainly produces red body type not porcelain that is what is more desired in the United States.尹虹：你在墨西哥瓷砖行业有没有发现一些中国的投资？Dr Yin：Do you find some Chinese investment ceramic tile industry in Mexico?汉贝托：这是一个很好的问题，很多人都没有注意到这一点。有史以来第一次，一家中国公司在墨西哥落户，即将开始运营，工厂几乎完工了，他们可能会在两三个月内开工，最多四个月。根据我们的所见所闻，还有另外两家公司正在申请在墨西哥开厂的许可。这很有趣，我们看看将发生什么。Mr. Humberto：That is a great question and many people are not aware of this. For the first time in history, a Chinese company settled in Mexico, and it’s about to open operations, the factory is almost finished maybe they will start in two three maximum four months according to what we have seen. And I heard as well that there are other two companies in the process of getting permits to establish themselves in Mexico. It's very interesting we will see what happens.尹虹：不仅有趣，还会给墨西哥瓷砖行业带来了一些变化。Dr Yin：Not only interesting but also will bring some changes to the Mexican Tile Industry.汉贝托：中国陶瓷企业到处建立公司，非洲、巴基斯坦、沙特、南美。我从这些国家的朋友那里听说，他们彻底改变了这个行业。Mr. Humberto：Everywhere the Chinese ceramic companies have established operations in Africa and Pakistan, in Saudi in South America. I heard from people from all of these countries, they completely changed the industry.尹虹：现在谈谈贵司ICC瓷砖的一些情况，我记得在去年（2022年）的谈话中，你说ICC在2023年将会增加15%—20%，现在我想问，今年（2023年）的预期目标达到了吗？Dr Yin：Now I talk about your company ICC in China, I remember last year in our conversation, you just say that the ICC in China will be increased 15%—20% in 2023. Now I'd like to ask you, you have got this the expected target this year (2023)?汉贝托：正如我之前提到的，2023年是艰难的一年，显然我们的期望高了，2023年的销售额有小幅增长。但遗憾的是，销售额增长了，而市场的价格战对利润率有一些影响。Mr. Humberto：2023, As I mentioned before was a difficult year, and our obviously our expectation was much higher, you know the result of 2023 was a small growth in sales. But unfortunately, that gain in sales was damaged by the lower margins because of the price wars.汉贝托：积极的一面是我们的销售额在增长，我们的专卖店数量在增加，新的经销商数量也在增加，我们不断地开设专卖店，取得进展。我们在2023年非常努力，也许结果未如理想，但还有一些无法通过财务数字体现的成果，将帮助我们打造一个更好的2024年。无论任何时候当中国经济在世界衰退中好转，我们都准备好了，我们为反弹和创造更好的一年做好准备。Mr. Humberto：But the positive thing is that we grew in sales. And we also grew in a number of stores, and number of new distributors signed and we keep opening stores and gaining ground which worked very hard in 2023, maybe the result was not what we wanted. But there are other non-financial numbers that are going to help us have a much better 2024. Or whenever the Chinese economy in the world recession gets better, I mean we we're ready. We're ready to bounce back and have a much better year.尹虹：你觉得2024年的中国瓷砖行业的情况会怎样？Dr Yin：You think about China ceramic tile in 2024, what is the situation?汉贝托：总的来说，整个行业，我觉得已经触底了，从现在开始，我们会越来越好。我的意思是说，我们不会反弹到好太多的程度。Mr. Humberto：In general, the industry in general, I think it feels like we already touched the bottom and from now we will keep getting better. I mean it's not like we're gonna bounce back to get much better.Dr Yin：You think it is still very hard?汉贝托：依然艰难，我不会感到惊讶，如果情况相同，或者将增长非常非常低的数字。 Mr. Humberto：Still hard still hard! I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same or if there's an increase will be very very low number.Dr Yin：Your company ICC in China, do you think about 2024？汉贝托：老实说，我认为将会更好，因为我们比前几年在升级与更新方面投入了多得多的资金。我们的专卖店更多了，仓库更大了，继在中国十年后，我们搬到了更大的仓库，参加重要的活动，举办年度事件，像广州设计周等等。为了让我们的公司与时俱进，实际上我们已经为2024年做好了充分准备。因为我们公司的类型，我们希望能比大多数公司做得更好。Mr. Humberto：I think honestly that would be better because we invested an unusual amount much higher than the previous years in upgrading and updating. Our stores and we have a bigger warehouse. After ten years, we moved to a bigger warehouse and attending important events regional events and annual events and Guangzhou Design Week and so on.To keep our company relevant, actually we're very ready for 2024. Because of the type of company that we are, and it is expected from us to have a better year than most.尹虹：几乎每年，你都会在博洛尼亚展览后分享国际瓷砖趋势。通过这种方式，我想问，ICC的产品和创新，是如何保持与国际趋势同步又满足中国风格需求？Dr Yin：Nearly every year, you always share the International Tile Trends after the Bologna Exhibition. In this way, I like to ask you, your products, innovation, how ICC keep these International Trends in Line with the Chinese Style?汉贝托：我们做这份报告已经有20多年，在中国也将近10年，我们多次向整个行业发布这份报告。我们有很多信息和渠道，因为我们有国际背景，与意大利公司深入合作，比其他中国公司参加更多的国际展会，所以我们可以做出很好的报告。一方面，我们努力推出非常国际化的产品，大胆承担风险，我们知道、希望或预测这些产品在中国会取得成功。另一方面，我们了解国际趋势，并尝试根据中国市场的需求来生产产品，这是非常重要的。我们的原则是，总是努力把全球最好的产品带到中国，包括意大利、西班牙或世界其他地方以及在中国制造的产品。Mr. Humberto：We have been doing this for actually 20 plus years and it's almost ten years in China. Many times, we present this report to the industry in general. We have access to a lot of information and places, because of our international background with the Italian companies, and we attend many international fairs much more than any other Chinese company, so we can make great reports. Also yes we work on that as well, but we also take risks and launch products that are very international, and knowing or hoping or forecasting that they will work well in China. We do the other thing as well you know that we understand the international trends and try to like make them according to the Chinese market and is very important. And the bottom line is we say we always try to bring the best products the world has to offer to China either made in Italy, Spain or any other parts of the world or manufactured in China.Dr Yin：As I know you, the ICC north America set up in 1979, is right?Dr Yin：Also ICC in China is more than ten years before.尹虹：这是13年了。你可以回头看这十几年，ICC在中国的发展是否按计划进行？你有足够的信心在中国发展下一个计划吗？Dr Yin：This is thirteen years. Yeah, I guess you can look back, this is the more than ten years. ICC in China the development is on schedule？And also you have the enough the confident in another schedule ICC in China to develop?汉贝托：现在我们已经发展了很多专卖店。我想明年（2024）我们很可能成为在中国拥有最多门店的国际品牌。我们在中国的潜力是巨大的。但我觉得ICC不需要成为最大的，无论是两百家还是三百家门店，每一家ICC门店都必须是市场上最好的专卖店，这是我们的目标，而不是只追求更多。Mr. Humberto：Now we have been opened plenty of stores. I think quite possibly next year we will be the International Brand that will have the most stores in China. The potential of that we have in China is big. But I don't expect ICC to be the biggest by any means if we have two or three hundred stores, I don't think it's necessary for us to have more. They have to be the best stores in the market now. That's our target.尹虹：我想每个人都像我一样 相信ICC在中国会变得更好。Dr Yin：I think everybody like me believe ICC will be better in China.汉贝托：是的，我们会的。现在我听到的信息比以往任何时候都多，我们也得到董事会的全力支持，以确保ICC保持强大，并有望在市场上更快地发展。Mr. Humberto：Yes, we will. and now more than ever I heard news that of course that we have full support of from the board members in making sure that ICC stay strong and grows hopefully faster in the market yeah.Dr Yin：OK yeah, Thank you for the Outlook for to 2024 the interview.Mr. Humberto：Thank you very much.
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